How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.