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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.